MLB Deserve-to-Win
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Search players and teams
Loading…
One moment while the latest numbers come in.
Reds @ Phillies, 07/05/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jul 5, 2025
Reds
1
Final
Game 777233
Phillies
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Reds
29%
· tied 17%
·
Phillies
54%
Phillies earned it
Phillies deserved to win and did, beating Reds 5–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.