MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Braves @ Cardinals, 07/13/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Jul 13, 2025
Braves
4
Final
Game 777118
Cardinals
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Braves
18%
· tied 14%
·
Cardinals
68%
Cardinals earned it
Cardinals deserved to win and did, beating Braves 5–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.