MLB Deserve-to-Win
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Search players and teams
Loading…
One moment while the latest numbers come in.
Astros @ Yankees, 08/09/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 9, 2025
Astros
4
Final
Game 776815
Yankees
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Astros
17%
· tied 12%
·
Yankees
71%
Yankees earned it
Yankees deserved to win and did, beating Astros 5–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.