MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Nationals @ Royals, 08/13/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 13, 2025
Nationals
8
Final
Game 776759
Royals
7
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Nationals
73%
· tied 10%
·
Royals
18%
Nationals earned it
Nationals deserved to win and did, beating Royals 8–7.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.