MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Braves @ Cubs, 09/03/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Sep 3, 2025
Braves
5
Final
Game 776473
Cubs
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Braves
95%
· tied 3%
·
Cubs
2%
Braves earned it
Braves deserved to win and did, beating Cubs 5–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.