MLB Deserve-to-Win
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Search players and teams
Loading…
One moment while the latest numbers come in.
Pirates @ Orioles, 09/09/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Sep 9, 2025
Pirates
2
Final
Game 776401
Orioles
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Pirates
33%
· tied 17%
·
Orioles
50%
Orioles earned it
Orioles deserved to win and did, beating Pirates 3–2.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.